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구소련권 통화통합에 관한 연구

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구소련권 통화통합 가능성에 대한 연구논문

목차

제1장. 서 론
1.1 연구의 목적
1.2 연구의 방법과 논문의 구성

제2장. 역내 통화협력에 관한 논의 및 선행연구
2.1 루블존의 붕괴
2.1.1 무역의 감소
2.1.2 지불결제시스템의 문제점
2.2 루블존의 붕괴 이후 CIS 역내 경제협력 논의
2.2.1 무역협정
2.2.2 통화협력
2.3 최적통화지역 이론
2.3.1 이론적 배경
2.3.2 최적통화지역의 구성 기준과 내생성 문제
2.3.3 선행연구

제3장 러시아, 벨로루시, 카자흐스탄, 우크라이나의 최적통화지역 구성 기준 및 충족도
3.1 무역 개방도와 상호의존성
3.2 산업의 특화 정도
3.3 노동시장의 유연성
3.4 거시경제의 수렴정도
3.4.1 EMU의 경제수렴기준 적용
3.4.2 경기변동과 인플레이션의 상관성

제4장 러시아 경제의 안정성

제5장 결 론

본문내용

세계화가 진행됨에 따라 국가들 간 경제통합은 경제적으로나 정치적으로 중요한 이슈가 되어왔다. 경제통합의 과정으로서 국가간 무역 협정, 관세 동맹, 통화통합을 이룬 대표적인 예가 유럽연합이다. 유럽연합은 1999년 유로화를 도입하면서 단일통화지역을 구성하였다. 통화통합이 경제발전 기여한 점에 대해 Rose(2000)는 국가 간에 단일통화를 사용한 경우가 그렇지 않은 경우보다 무역이 증대되었음을 밝혔다.
CIS 지역에서도 유라시안경제공동체(EurAsEC)을 중심으로 많은 경제통합 논의가 있다. 또한 역내 국가간 교역비중이 가장 큰 러시아, 벨로루시, 카자흐스탄, 우크라이나 4국의 단일경제공동체(Common Economic Space) 역시 역내 경제통합을 목적으로 하고 있다. CES는 대외무역, 거시경제, 통화정책 및 재정정책, 외환정책 등 경제제도의 국가간 조화와 표준화를 목표로 하고 있다. CES의 기본 원칙은 회원국간 상품, 서비스, 자본, 노동의 자유로운 이동을 보장하는 것이다. 이는 단일통화지역 구성의 기준들과 매우 유사한 조건이다.

< 중 략 >

통화통합에 가장 큰 혜택은 국가간 높은 수준의 교역량 인해 발생하게 되므로 무역의 개방도와 심화도는 매우 중요한 기준이다. 그 점에서 단일경제공동체 4국의 무역 개방도와 심화도가 높은 수준을 보인 것은 단일통화지역 구성에 대한 기본적인 유인을 제공한다. 러시아와 벨로루시 양국이 통화통합을 먼저 하더라도 Bayoumi(1994)의 모델처럼 역내에서 러시아와의 교역이 가장 많고 개방도도 큰 카자흐스탄과 우크라이나가 단일통화지역에 참여할 유인이 발생하게 될 것이다.
뿐만 아니라 이 국가들은 소련 90 여년 동안 공통의 역사를 가지고 있다. Frankel and Rose(1997)가 통화통합의 내생성을 실증분석하면서 더미변수로 거리, 국경인접여부, 공통언어를 사용하였는데 벨로루시, 우크라이나, 카자흐스탄은 러시아를 중심으로 모두 국경이 인접하고 있으며 러시아어가 통용되고 있다. 다시말해 이러한 부분 역시 잠재적인 단일통화지역 구성에 긍정적으로 작용할 것 이다.

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