대한민국의 지난 60년간의 경제 지표들에 대한 거시경제학적 분석을 한 영문 레포트 입니다.
I. The Economic Growth in Korea
The Korean War and Economic Chaos
The Upbringing of Heavy Chemical Industry
Economic Stabilization and structural reform
Trade liberalization and opening of Korea’s market
After the foreign exchange crisis
II. Economic Fluctuation of Korea
The Energy Crisis
The 3-Low Boom
The IMF Foreign Exchange Crisis
As we have seen in the fist section of this report, Republic of Korea has experienced a rapid economic growth from 1963 to 1996. During these 34 years population has grown 70% and real income per capita has become 10 times larger than before 1963. People name this era of rapid growth (average 8% GDP growth for over 30 years) as the ‘Miracle of Han River’, and many developing nations including Vietnam and Laos are trying hard to follow Korea’s path.
However, even during this era of long term rapid growth, short term economic fluctuation has existed. There were periods of strong economic boom, as well as relative economic recessions. For example, Republic of Korea went through a worldwide economic depression due to the oil shock in the 1970s, but then experienced the largest economic boom from 1986 to 1989. In this section of the report, 3 significant examples of economic fluctuation, from the oil shock to the IMF foreign exchange crisis, will be presented and analyzed.
The Energy Crisis, 1973~1980
The energy crisis, in other words oil shock, refers to the rapid increase in oil price during the 1970’s. The first energy crisis occurred in 1973, and the second energy crisis occurred in 1978. During this period major industrial nations including Korea faced shortage in petroleum.
The first energy crisis was triggered by the 4th Middle East war between Arab and Israel in October 6, 1973. The OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) decided to proclaim an oil embargo, in opposition to the US supply to the Israeli military. In October 16, 1973, oil price decision makers of 6 OAPEC member countries gathered in Kuwait, and decided to use petroleum price as a weapon, and agreed to double the oil price. As a result, the oil price became $10.73 per barrel during the first energy crisis, which was about 5 times larger than the oil price before the energy shock ($2.03).
The Iranian revolution triggered the second energy crisis in 1979. Through this revolution, a new regime took control of Iran. Oil exports of Iran stopped entirely during the revolution, and even after the revolution, the oil production in Iran was inconsistent, in a lower volume. Overall, the oil production of Iran dropped 4% due to revolution, but the widespread panic of another energy crisis influenced the international petroleum demand, and pulled the petroleum price. As a result the oil price became over $40 per barrel, which quadrupled in 6 years.
The energy crisis in the 1970s strongly affected the Korean economy. First, the rise in oil price strongly influenced the overall price level. As we have studied during class, the rise in oil price alters the marginal cost curve of each firm. This shifts the market supply curve to the left, and the aggregate price level will rise.
Modern History of Korean Economy, Third edition, Lee Heon-Chang, p 431-432, 521 .526 table 1,2
Macroeconomics, Lee Jong-Hwa, p 4-7, 47
Change, Samjung KPMG Economy Research Institute
The understanding of actual Korean Economy, Kim Young Cheul
Understanding Korean Economy, Kang In Soo
Economic Statistics system, BOK, ecos.bok.or.kr
The National Statistical Office
IMF, International Financial Statistics
Maddision(Barro and Sala-I-Martin)
World Bank Statistics, www.worldbank.org