달러 가치 변동을 주제로 한 보고서입니다.
Financial Times 의 글을 읽고 그 바탕으로 자신의 생각을 덧붙이고 작성한 겁니다.
1. Introduction: Dollar’s fall is inevitable
(1) The deficit is driven by capital inflows attracted by high US real returns?
(2) The deficit is caused by high economic growth in the US?
(3) All the problems can be solved only if the US fiscal deficits disappear?
2. My Analysis of falling dollar
(1) The current account deficit of the US
(2) What makes dollar fall?
(3) What happened to dollar?
(4) The consequence of the falling dollar
(5) Resistance from some Asian countries
From the US’s standpoint, it seems quite reasonable and profitable to force the world to adjust to the changes in the exchange rate. However, the adjustment to a lower dollar will not be painless, since higher import prices will add to inflation, and long-term interest rates will almost certainly rise from their extraordinarily low levels of today. In any case, U.S. influence in the world is bound to weaken as the dollar shrinks. The US’s expensive currency has allowed it to pay for foreign bases and other overseas costs of the war on terrorism on the cheap. Their appetite for low-priced imports, meanwhile, has enabled U.S. diplomats to win support abroad for American policies by offering or withholding access to the U.S. consumer market. A lower-priced dollar will make being the world`s policeman more expensive. Therefore, in conclusion, we should look at the both sides of the issue. Martin Wolf is right, because the US’s debt cannot grow faster than its income forever, a painful economic adjustment is at some point unavoidable. But the pain, for the US and for the rest of the world, could be much less if the US were to manage the dollar down gradually, in cooperation with the world`s other major economies.